Technology and Australia’s Future examines how technology has changed in the past, how it will continue to change in the future and what one can consequently say about the impacts of new technologies on Australia. The report aims to provide government and industry with guidance that will endure over the long term; it does not only look at the technologies of today or those categorised as ‘emerging’ technologies. Technology and Australia’s Future focuses on how technology changes, the nature of its impacts, how it can be predicted and the types of interventions that help deal with the complexity and uncertainty inherent in technological change.
Technology is central to human existence and is of great importance to Australia both now and in the future. The history of technology and the history of human development are deeply entwined. Human beings have pursued technological opportunities in all of their activities – food production, comfort and safety, defence, transport, trade and commerce, information, media and communication, art and culture, health, sanitation, reproduction, manufacturing – everything. The study of technology development as an activity independent of the social and economic development of Homo sapiens would miss critical aspects of the evolution of technology and the impact it has on being human.
Technological change is a major driver of social change and the dominant source of economic growth. It encompasses the processes of invention, innovation and diffusion of technology. While often used, linear models of technological change (e.g. basic research leads to technological development which then leads to product commercialisation and diffusion), are rarely accurate. Technologies change through a complex web of factors with many feedback and feed-forward mechanisms. Interventions intended to enhance technological innovation are likely to be of little benefit if they are based on simplistic models.
Technological change is comparable to biological evolution: it is unpredictable in detail, but there are general patterns that recur including path-dependence, multiple invention, punctuated equilibria and recombination of ideas. Technological change can be facilitated by enhancing the interoperability of technologies. Old technologies continue to have a lasting influence through technological inertia and momentum. Technology changes primarily through parts-assembly whereby existing technological components are combined together in new ways.
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